Iran in Region

...So Iran

Iran with over 70 m population, good telecommunication network all over country, good rail/road/air network infrastructure, young and educated society, has a big potential to be strong consumer market in near future.

Unfortunately non-oil export of country is few and it seems to be a pure importing country rather than having balance in import-export. To become an exporting country huge infrastructure investment is needed which should be accompanied with strong Regional and International integration( like trading in WTO). I have no in depth knowledge of Macroeconomic issues and policy making and what I mentioned is a common sense! studies on other countries economic development shows five stages(Rostow), this is the way in which all countries will follow in development process. Economy starts by investing in infrastructure which are resource intensive( importing oil, coal, iron ore...), then slowly goes to production of consumer goods( like cars, computers, IT...: exporting them!).

stage 1: Traditional society: economy is based on Agriculture..

Stage2:Transitional:development of education..

Stage3:Take-off:modern technology: investment:heavy industries..

Stage4:Maturity:production: machinery's: chemicals...

Stage5:Mass consumption:transition from heavy industries to consumer good production

But is it 10 year, 40 year...? Rostow says 60 years only for stage 3 !!! anyway, in which stage is Iran now or could be in next 15-20 years. we cant put Iran in Stage 1 ! as I already mentioned country has its infrastructure and in my rough idea could fit in initial steps of stage 3: Take off ( so please take off Iran!). If we believe that country is in its midway toward industrialization( as we can feel level of import of coal, iron ore...) we should simply remember that country will import more and more and main gate ways of import are southern seaports, mainly ports of Bandar Abbass and bandar Imam Khomeini, both situated in Persian gulf where Dammam, Jubail, Dubai, Oman... are situated.

So...